نوع مقاله : پژوهشی بنیادی
نویسندگان
1 گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، مؤسسه آموزش عالی توسعه دانش، سنندج، ایران
2 دانشجوی سابق کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی محیط زیست، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
3 گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Climate change is the most significant challenge facing humanity in the 21st century, as it exerts numerous negative impacts on all dimensions of human life, both in urban and rural environments; however, its consequences are more pronounced in urban settings. It is essential to study the impacts of climate change on all aspects of urban life, including the city's climatic aspects such as precipitation and temperature, so that by understanding these impacts and projecting them into the future, better managerial planning for the city can be provided. In this research, the effects of climate change on seasonal and annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in the city of Arak were projected under the new IPCC climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, for future decades up to the year 2100. To utilize the outputs of the CanESM5 general circulation model at regional and local scales, the SDSM model was employed for downscaling. The results indicate a decrease in precipitation across all seasons and on an annual scale; such that an average annual precipitation reduction of -13.3% per decade is projected, with the greatest reduction occurring in summer (-29.2%) and the least in spring (-12.0%). Maximum temperature shows a decrease in winter (-16.4%) and an increase in other seasons, with an annual average of +0.4%. Minimum temperature exhibits a gradual increase in all seasons, with an annual average of +0.14% and the greatest increase in spring (+19.9%). The findings of this study suggest that the city of Arak will become drier over the next seven decades and warmer in all seasons except winter. Urban managers in Arak should, from now on, consider long-term managerial planning for appropriate urban designs and the adoption of modern and green technologies to cope with severe drought and heat in the city.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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