تحلیل کمی ادراک و پاسخ کشاورزان به تغییرات محیطی

The strong dependence of the agricultural sector on environmental conditions has made it one of the most vulnerable domains to climate change and drought phenomena. The present study aims to examine farmers’ perceptions of environmental changes and to identify their adaptation strategies in Najafabad County using a quantitative approach. This research was conducted through a descriptive–analytical method. Data were collected via field surveys using a researcher-designed questionnaire. The sample size was determined as 209 farmers based on the Krejcie and Morgan table, and simple random sampling was employed. The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed by Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (greater than 0.7). Data analysis was performed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The results revealed that more than 90% of farmers perceived an increase in temperature and drought intensity, while 92% reported a noticeable decrease in precipitation. Environmental changes had a significant effect on cultivated area, crop yield and growth period, water resources, and farmers’ income. Among the adaptation strategies, the most frequent were the adoption of modern irrigation systems (70%), crop diversification (58%), and the use of drought-resistant seeds (47%); however, 64% of farmers had not taken any effective adaptive measures. The Duncan test indicated significant differences among rural districts in economic, technological, institutional, and socio-cultural dimensions; the Eshan and Sadeghieh districts showed the highest, and the Jowzdan district the lowest, average adaptation levels. By integrating perceptual components, determinant factors, and behavioral adaptation patterns within rural contexts, the study provides a comprehensive understanding of policy gaps and local capacities, offering a framework for designing targeted interventions from the village to the county level.
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
Agriculture is a key pillar of food security, employment, and sustainable development in rural communities, but its strong dependence on natural conditions makes it highly vulnerable to climate and environmental changes. Rising temperatures, precipitation variability, drought, declining water resources, soil erosion, and groundwater depletion have increasingly affected agricultural production and rural livelihoods. In this context, farmers’ perceptions of environmental change are important because they can shape the adoption and effectiveness of adaptation strategies. Najafabad County in Isfahan Province has experienced substantial environmental pressures, reflected in declining cultivated and orchard areas, reduced agricultural employment, and increasing land-use changes. Despite these challenges, limited research has systematically examined the relationship between farmers’ perceptions, adaptive behavior, and adaptation strategies in the county. Therefore, this study investigates farmers’ perceptions of recent environmental changes, their assessment of the intensity and consequences of these changes, spatial differences in the factors influencing agricultural adaptation across rural areas, and the main adaptation strategies adopted to cope with environmental pressures.
 
Methodology
The study employed a descriptive-analytical approach based on a field survey of 209 farmers in rural areas of Najafabad County, Isfahan Province. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire, with its reliability confirmed by a Cronbach’s alpha coefficient of 0.76. Data analysis was conducted in SPSS using descriptive statistics and inferential tests, including the one-sample t-test, one-way ANOVA, and Duncan’s post hoc test. The study examined farmers’ perceptions of environmental changes, their effects on agriculture, adaptation strategies, and differences in adaptation levels and influencing factors across rural areas.
 
Results and Discussion
The findings showed that farmers in Najafabad County perceived increased temperatures, decreased rainfall, and intensified drought as the most important environmental changes. These changes had significant effects on cultivated area, crop performance and quality, growing periods, water resources, farmers’ income, and employment. Among the adaptation strategies, the use of modern irrigation systems, shifting from crop production to horticulture, crop diversification, changing irrigation schedules, and using resistant crop varieties were the most important strategies adopted by farmers. In contrast, strategies such as changing agricultural activities to livestock production or non-agricultural activities, applying conservation practices, and using agricultural insurance were less commonly adopted. The results also indicated significant differences among the rural areas of Najafabad County in terms of the level of adaptation and its economic, technological, institutional-legal, and socio-cultural determinants. However, no significant differences were observed among the rural areas regarding awareness and information, training, and skills. The Duncan post hoc test further revealed differences in the level of adaptation among the rural areas. Ashan and Sadeghieh showed higher levels of adaptation, while Jozdan had a lower level, with Safaiyeh and Hosseinabad occupying intermediate positions. The findings also indicated that the rural areas differed in the relative strength of the factors influencing adaptation. Sadeghieh had a higher position regarding economic factors, whereas Ashan showed a stronger position in technological and institutional-legal factors. In terms of socio-cultural factors, Ashan and Sadeghieh demonstrated relatively stronger conditions. Overall, the findings highlight spatial differences in farmers’ adaptation capacity and the factors shaping their responses to environmental changes.
 
Conclusion
Overall, environmental changes, particularly climate change, have increased the vulnerability of rural livelihoods in Najafabad County by affecting water resources, soil, vegetation cover, and agricultural production, resulting in reduced cultivated areas, declining production, increased pests and diseases, and intensified migration. The findings indicate that increasing farmers’ awareness, improving access to information and extension services, providing training in modern agricultural practices and water resource management, and strengthening adaptation skills can play an important role in reducing the impacts of these changes. The main adaptation strategies include crop and livelihood diversification, developing supplementary off-farm income sources, using technologies and weather information, developing modern and water-efficient irrigation systems, and changing cropping patterns and using resistant crops. Therefore, strengthening agricultural education and extension services, improving access to climate information, and developing technologies adapted to water-scarce conditions can enhance farmers’ adaptive capacity and the sustainability of agricultural activities in the region.