بررسی تحولات زیست محیطی دریاچه ارومیه مبتنی بر تقویت ظرفیت نهادی در افق 1415

Institutional capacity building is an essential need to address environmental challenges and an important driver for reducing the destructive effects of climate and environmental changes. The main objective of the present study is to explain how institutional capacity development can enable sustainable management of Lake Urmia through strategic planning based on environmental changes. This study, by combining quantitative-qualitative methods and a foresight approach, has developed new and effective criteria for planning and developing institutional capacity in the environment around Lake Urmia. Initially, in order to examine the current situation and determine uncertainties and provide an innovative and targeted solution, the factors affecting the strategic future of Lake Urmia were identified in the form of components affecting the future status of Lake Urmia. Analysis of the software inputs indicated the desirability of the level of fit and validity of the variables. After examining the systemic status and observing the stability of the lake's institutional capacity, influential factors were extracted and among different scenarios, 5 main scenarios were selected, among which the fourth scenario (unstable lake) with a realization rate of 66.33 percent has the highest probability of occurrence. In this scenario, Lake Urmia has seasonal life in years of water scarcity and weak life in years with average rainfall. It also has a relatively unhealthy and unstable environment, turmoil in the cultural-social system of the watershed, poor institutional management, semi-active actors with conflict of interests and weak competitive power, and unsustainable ecotourism. Finally, with the benefit of experts' opinions and based on possible scenarios, strategic indicators have been developed.
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
The institutional approach is in governance. It is formed through the dynamic administration processes of regional affairs by using existing capacities and creating new capacities at the local and regional levels. This approach believes in making sustainability procedural by improving environmental sustainability indicators. Environmental challenges resulting from water resources in Iran are considered one of the most important obstacles limiting development in Iran in the coming decades. Formulation of macro-management policies at the country level and need to plan strategic planning, which is needed more than before in institutions involved in the sustainability of Lake Urmia. This research explains how the development of institutional capacity through strategic planning can enable sustainable management. Therefore, it is necessary to take a trans-sectoral view to identify key and problematic issues in institutional management in natural resources and transformative opportunities, and it is in line with comprehensive development at the level of the country and the studied area. Which can be oriented by determining strategic axes based on environmental changes in the present and future.
 
Methodology
In order to identify the influencing factors of the state of institutional management of the Urmia Lake catchment area, effective measurement and analysis is carried out on it, which was first scored in the framework of the cross-effects analysis matrix under the theoretical foundations and opinions of the research elites. The software output shows the desirability of the level of fit and validity of the variables at a very high level, where the saturation index shows the high coefficient of influence and high factor load in the selected factors on each other. It is very difficult to separate the influential elements in unstable systems, and a large part of the vision of lake restoration has not been realized, which has led to environmental instability at the level of the studied area. To extract strategic indicators, a list of internal and external variables has been prepared by using a cross matrix and performing systematic analysis. Therefore, in the first stage, the most important primary effective factors will be processed. Based on this, in the present research, 50 main factors were initially identified as frequent and consensus meetings with the elite community, and with the interaction analysis model in Mic Mac software, key factors effective on the subject of the research were extracted. Uncertainty means unpredictability of developments and events in Lake Urmia and the degree of environmental sustainability, which depends on the development of the capacity of the institutions involved in its restoration and development that will occur in the future (time horizon of scenarios).In order to determine this importance, using the impact and uncertainty matrix, the most important driving forces were determined by using a questionnaire and using the opinion of experts and specialists in planning and executive management using the most important key factors. Which showed the results of the survey and outputs which are the factors of cooperative planning, the ability to mobilize resources (financial resources, equipment, people, etc.), thinking of ecosystem services, underground aquifers of water resources, the formation of knowledge networks, participation and influence of stakeholders in decision-making, the response of the local community (range Implementation of the plan), damage of environmental migrations, geopolitical consequences as the most important driving forces in the future state of the lake area and its catchment area have a more effective role. After compiling the research scenarios in the final step of this section, strategic indicators were defined according to the research objectives.
 
Results and Discussion
I To identify the key factors influencing institutional management in the Urmia Lake catchment area, a systematic analysis was conducted using a cross-effects matrix based on theoretical foundations and expert opinions. The Mic Mac software results indicated strong consistency and validity among variables, with high influence and saturation indices. Given the complexity of unstable systems, isolating impactful elements is challenging, and much of the lake's restoration vision remains unrealized, contributing to environmental instability. A list of internal and external variables was analyzed to extract strategic indicators. Initially, 50 core factors were identified through expert consensus, and key drivers were determined using interaction analysis. Uncertainty—defined as the unpredictability of future developments—depends on the institutional capacity for restoration. Using an impact–uncertainty matrix and expert input, major driving forces were identified, including cooperative planning, resource mobilization, ecosystem service awareness, aquifer management, knowledge networks, stakeholder engagement, local response, environmental migration, and geopolitical effects. Finally, strategic indicators were developed in line with the research objectives.
 
Conclusion
In this research, a systemic and evolutionary perspective with a strategic perspective based on the collaborative program of development actors is presented. To provide the strategic axes of the research by examining how to implement the development and restoration programs of Lake Urmia, based on the existing capacity inside and outside the country, as well as the creation of new capacities to preserve the ecosystem. In the following, the results of the research were carried out according to the opinions of the Delphi group in order to investigate the current situation and determine the uncertainties, at first 60 factors affecting the strategic future of Urmia Lake were determined as 6 components that are effective and influential on the future state of Urmia Lake and then it was reduced to 50 influential factors as the opinions of the Delphi group and according to the current conditions of the studied sample and the analysis of the software inputs indicates the desirability of the level of fit and validity of the variables at a high reliability level) which showed 97.72% and indicates a high coefficient of influence and a high factor load in the selected factors on each other. This importance was evaluated based on the method of mutual effects analysis and using Micmac software. After determining the systemic situation and observing the stability or lack of stability of the institutional capacity of the lake, the position of the various research variables was determined by their impact and effectiveness. Finally, 15 main factors as the main factors and drivers and their use in scenario writing; were extracted and 5 main research scenarios were selected from six million different scenarios. Finally, the fourth scenario, with the statement that a lake with seasonal life in water-scarce years and a weak life in years with moderate rainfall, has the highest probability of occurrence with a realization rate of 66%. Finally, according to the forward scenarios and with the benefit of experts and using the most important and effective extraction factors, strategic indicators have been developed.