نقش بازارهای محلی در تحولات اقتصادی سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در نواحی کوهستانی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان سنندج)

Achieving development is one of the fundamental goals of countries around the world, including developing countries. The expansion of local markets, which is effective in developing the labor market, is one of the factors affecting the level of development of rural areas. In this research, the main goal was to examine the effects of the market on the economic developments of rural settlements. The present study is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology and uses both quantitative and qualitative methods. The statistical population is 19 villages located in the suburban district, with a population of 28,597 people. The sample size was estimated to be 337 using the Cochran formula with a 95% confidence interval. Field and library methods were used to collect data and develop a theoretical framework. In the quantitative method, the type of research was survey and a questionnaire was used to collect data. In the qualitative method, interview and observation methods were used to collect data, and data evaluation was done using a five-point Likert scale. In examining the validity of the questionnaire, face validity (subjective), expert opinion, and consistency with previous studies were used. For the reliability of the measurement tool, pre-testing and Cronbach's alpha calculation were used. A combination of quantitative (exploratory factor analysis) and qualitative (questionnaire analysis) methods was used to analyze the collected data. The results of factor analysis showed that the most important factors affecting economic developments in rural settlements were summarized in the form of three factors, which explained a total of 97.87 percent of the variance of the dependent variable. The identified factors and the percentage of explanation for each of them, in order of importance, are: marketing and production factor (47.2%), employment factor (32.67%), and income factor (18 %).
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
Flood risk in various rural areas, including tourist villages, is considered one of the most significant risks. The risk of flooding and its impact on tourist villages is a critical area of study that requires attention. Understanding the relationship between flood risk and tourism is crucial for developing post-disaster management policies and strategies. One of the key factors to consider regarding the impact of flood risk on tourist villages is its potential economic and social consequences. The disruption caused by floods can significantly damage the infrastructure and amenities that attract tourists to these villages, leading to reduced tourist numbers, loss of income for local businesses, and overall negative effects on the community. Moreover, understanding the specific vulnerabilities of tourist villages to flood risk is essential for implementing targeted mitigation and adaptation measures. By identifying the unique challenges facing these communities, policymakers and stakeholders can develop resilience strategies that address the specific needs of tourism-dependent regions. Undoubtedly, the relationship between flood risk and tourist villages is a multifaceted issue that requires a comprehensive approach. Through further research and integration of diverse perspectives, sustainable solutions can be developed to protect the livelihoods and well-being of tourism-dependent communities in flood-prone areas. Given this, identifying areas exposed to risks, including flood risk in tourism villages, is crucial for better development of these spaces. The tourism villages in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province can serve as a suitable case study for assessing flood risk. This region, characterized by its mountainous terrain and unique natural features, provides an ideal setting to study flood risk. Identifying challenges, including predicting flood risk and integrating crisis management into rural tourism development, can be a decisive step towards sustainable tourism development in this region. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to evaluate tourist villages in terms of flood risk vulnerability. Accordingly, the main research question is formulated as follows: What is the flood risk vulnerability situation of tourism villages in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province?
 
Methodology
This research is descriptive-analytical in nature and practical in purpose. The data includes spatial data from the mapping organization as well as meteorological statistics. First, the effective criteria for evaluating tourist villages in terms of flood risk vulnerability were identified. Various criteria have been used in different studies. In this research, six criteria were used: elevation, slope, geology, land cover, waterways, and precipitation. Initially, the criteria were standardized to ensure all had the same unit. Based on the review of the literature and previous research, the standards and characteristics of flood risk were extracted and considered for each criterion. In this research, the Boolean method was used to weight the sub-criteria. In this method, flood-prone areas were assigned a code of zero, and areas without risk were assigned a weight and identified with a code of one. This process was applied to all six criteria, and the maps were generated with two layers: zero and one. Next, the obtained maps were overlapped using AND and OR algorithms, known as the pessimistic (AND) and optimistic (OR) scenarios. Through this process, the status of tourist villages was determined based on the calculated vulnerability to flood risk. The maps were prepared using ArcGIS software. Additionally, the IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting) algorithm was used to prepare the precipitation pattern, the Distance algorithm to prepare the distance map from waterways, and the Slope algorithm to prepare the slope map.
 
Results and Discussion
The findings of the research showed that in the optimistic scenario, 97.11 square kilometers of the area are at risk of flooding, including Rostam Abad village. However, in the pessimistic scenario, more than 16,001.98 square kilometers, equivalent to 98.62 percent of the region, are at risk of flooding. In this scenario, 14 out of 18 tourist villages, including Rostam Abad, Chalwan, Swadjan, Yase Chai, Pirghar, Rostam Bey, Birahgan, Dimeh, Sheikh Ali Khan, Niakan, Dezak, Dorak, Duplan, and Barez, are vulnerable to flood risk, placing them in unfavorable conditions. Based on the results, it can be concluded that in both scenarios, Rostam Abad village is at risk of flooding. Other villages in the pessimistic scenario should also not be ignored. Therefore, planning and appropriate executive-operational measures should be emphasized in this field.
 
Conclusion
Natural hazards always threaten villages, arising from various conditions. One of the most significant risks in rural areas is flooding. Flood risk consistently causes irreparable damage to rural areas across social, economic, and physical aspects. In this context, tourist villages suffer greater losses due to their unique locations and developed infrastructure. Therefore, identifying villages at risk of flooding can be a positive step towards better management and development, as well as mitigating potential future crises. Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, due to its geographical location and numerous tourist villages, is a suitable region for investigating this issue. This research examines the tourist villages of this province in terms of flood risk vulnerability. The results showed that all the investigated factors, including elevation, slope, geology, land cover, rainfall, and waterways, are effective in controlling and determining the degree of flood risk vulnerability. The distribution of the studied tourist villages on each of the maps confirms this well.