سناریوهای سیاست‌گذاری مدیریت محیط روستایی (مطالعه موردی: استان کرمان)

In order to achieve sustainable development of rural areas, it seems necessary to understand the future situation and plan accordingly for rural management and achieving development goals. This research was conducted with the aim of identifying and formulating scenarios for rural environment management policy in Kerman province. The importance of this issue is that development, especially in sensitive areas such as villages in Kerman province, plays a fundamental role in social, economic and environmental sustainability. In the present study, using a qualitative method and scenario writing approach and using the Scenario Wizard software, the indicators emphasized by experts in rural areas of Kerman province were analyzed.  The overall process of conducting the research was as follows: in the first step, the main indicators and descriptors were identified using a review of sources and interviews with experts. Then, the data from the questionnaire was entered into the software in the form of a matrix of interaction effects and, accordingly, possible, probable and credible scenarios were extracted. The results show that in most scenarios, key indicators such as the social, cultural, economic identity of villages, as well as the level of public participation in policy-making, are neglected, and the current trend will continue. Only the environmental indicator plays a more prominent role in influencing policies. Finally, the most likely scenario is the continuation of the current conditions with undesirable consequences for sustainable rural development. Therefore, paying attention to the economic dimensions, the different role of the government, the independent identity of the historic village, and cultural and social considerations seem necessary to improve the future situation of the villages of Kerman province.
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
making and rural management play a decisive role in improving the living conditions of rural communities, and the quality of decisions taken in this domain can either facilitate or hinder the development process. Given that the future of rural environments is filled with uncertainties, employing a futures studies approach can serve as an appropriate tool for forecasting and designing a desirable future. Futures studies, through the analysis of past trends and the current situation, seek to identify possible and probable futures and provide a basis for selecting preferable scenarios. Among its various tools, scenario planning stands out as one of the most important, enabling managers and policymakers to make more effective decisions in the face of future challenges and opportunities. This research aims to identify and formulate policy-making scenarios for rural environment management in Kerman Province. To achieve this, the cross-impact analysis approach and the Scenario Wizard software were employed to derive the most probable scenarios in the field of rural policy-making and management. The findings indicate that relying on these scenarios can provide a framework for more effective decision-making at both local and provincial levels, which, in turn, reduces uncertainties and paves the way for sustainable rural development in Kerman Province.
 
Methodology
The present study is applied and descriptive analytical in nature. To identify policy-making scenarios for rural environment management, the main indicators and descriptors were first determined through literature review and expert interviews. Data were then collected from provincial experts in Kerman using a structured questionnaire, which was prepared for input into the Scenario Wizard software. The questionnaire was designed as a cross-impact matrix to capture the complexities and interrelationships of the indicators. The software analysis produced possible, plausible, and probable scenarios for rural policy-making and management.
 
Results and Discussion
The scenario analysis for rural policy-making in Kerman Province revealed multiple possible futures, most of which indicate suboptimal conditions in key areas such as rural identity, cultural considerations, public participation, and economic and management practices. The scenarios demonstrated that the environment strongly influences policy outcomes, while historical context is often neglected. Among the identified scenarios, one was considered the most probable, highlighting a continuation of existing practices with limited attention to rural identity, culture, and participation, alongside persistent economic and management trends. These findings suggest that without targeted interventions, future rural policy-making is likely to maintain current limitations, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning to promote sustainable development and improved governance in rural areas.
 
Conclusion
This study aimed to explore the future of rural policy-making in Kerman Province and identify the most probable scenarios using cross-impact analysis and Scenario Wizard software. Key research descriptors were determined through expert interviews, and analysis produced scenarios with varying levels of consistency. The findings indicate that under most scenarios, current trends of critical indicators—such as rural identity, management practices, and economic conditions—are unlikely to result in favorable outcomes and may even worsen. Only the environmental impact on policy decisions shows potential for stronger influence. These results highlight the need for policymakers and authorities to carefully consider fundamental indicators and the current status of rural areas to achieve sustainable development and improve governance in Kerman’s rural communities.